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【导语】 经过10月份火热行情后,11月份蛋价震荡下行,随着产销区蛋价跌幅逐渐扩大,贸易商恐慌心理加重,局部地区出现低价抛货,加重市场行情弱势,月内各地蛋价跌幅普遍突破1.00元/斤。
进入11月份,各地蛋价弱势运行,贸易商出货压力加大,市场抵触高价,下游需求跟进动力不足,部分地区余货增加,蛋价承压小幅走低。随着猪肉价格大幅走低,对鸡蛋和淘汰鸡行情支撑作用削弱,整体流通不畅,终端抵触高价,各地余货增加,蛋价继续下跌。随着蛋价下跌幅度加大,贸易商恐慌心理加重,局部地区出现低价抛货,加重市场行情弱势。11月1-26日,全国主产区鸡蛋均价由5.32元/斤跌至4.11元/斤,跌幅22.74%。
截至10月末,全国在产蛋鸡存栏量12.59亿只,环比涨幅1.58%,鸡蛋产量增加。同时由于蛋价下滑,各环节库存压力较大,因此鸡蛋货源供应充足。需求端来看,11月份终端需求处于消费淡季,市场销售缺乏利好因素支撑,整体走货平平,下游环节贸易商采购谨慎,维持低位库存,随销随采为主。截止到27日,卓创资讯对全国五个城市代表销区市场进行数据监测显示,总计鸡蛋销量为8104.47吨,较上个月同期跌幅2.49%。食品厂成品走货较上月放缓,鸡蛋采购量缩减。同时猪肉价格大幅走低,削弱鸡蛋替代效果,下游消化放缓。综上所述,供需双方皆承受压力,因此11月份蛋价震荡走低。
供应方面,目前气温下蛋重上涨较快,中、大码鸡蛋占比较高,产量提升较为明显,二、三季度养殖户补栏量增幅显著,12月份新开产蛋鸡仍呈增加趋势。但由于春节提前,并且淘汰鸡行情难有明显好转,12月份养殖单位有集中淘汰老鸡的计划,因此鸡蛋产量增幅或有限。需求方面,12月鸡蛋市场需求向好,产区内销仍有可观的提升空间,产、销区价差或逐渐缩小。同时随着元旦、春节的临近,食品厂采购量或有增加,同时商超有备货意向,卓创资讯预计12月鸡蛋价格或呈现震荡上涨走势,主产区鸡蛋日均价或涨至4.60元/斤左右。(卓创资讯分析师 朱泽坤)
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(免责声明:卓创资讯所提供的数据和信息仅供参考,未经许可,不得转载。任何依据卓创资讯数据和信息而进行的投资、买卖、运营等行为所造成的任何直接或间接损失及法律后果均应当自行承担,与卓创资讯无关。)"





